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This repository presents my research and analytical writing on India’s external sector, exchange rate dynamics, and long-term economic structure.
My work examines India’s recurring currency pressure through a structural Balance of Payments lens, focusing on how foreign exchange is earned, financed, and absorbed over time. Across papers and articles, I analyse the roles of export composition, manufacturing capability, and the limitations of services-led growth and capital inflows in anchoring external stability.
A detailed statement of the research thesis is available here: Read the core research thesis
India’s repeated episodes of rupee depreciation reflect a structural external-sector constraint rather than a sequence of isolated cyclical shocks.
While capital inflows have enabled the financing of current account deficits, they have not altered the underlying configuration of foreign exchange generation. Over time, this has left the currency sensitive to global financial conditions and external shocks.
A durable anchor for currency stability requires a structurally stronger export base—particularly in manufacturing—that generates scalable and resilient foreign exchange earnings. This research programme studies why services-led growth and capital inflows, while important, are insufficient on their own to perform this role.
SSRN Working Paper
This paper develops a conceptual framework for understanding recurring pressure on the Indian rupee by distinguishing between cyclical triggers and deeper external-sector characteristics. It reframes currency weakness as a structural outcome of how foreign exchange is generated and financed over time.
These articles form a connected analytical arc examining India’s external-sector structure, with particular emphasis on export composition, manufacturing capability, and long-term currency stability.
Published
Financing the Imbalance: Capital Inflows and India’s Currency Stability
Examines how reliance on volatile capital inflows finances India’s current account deficit without providing durable currency stability.
In Progress
Planned (as part of the same research arc)
India’s Persistent Rupee Depreciation: A Structural Balance of Payments Perspective
This paper synthesises the insights from the article series into a unified structural analysis of India’s external sector. It combines conceptual framing, stylised facts, and comparative insights to examine the long-term drivers of currency pressure and external vulnerability.
Email: sarimislam22@gmail.com
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/sarimislam22